Annus Horribilis Followed By Annus Mirabilis
Jerry Welch - InsideFutures.com - Fri Dec 07, 8:53AM CST

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Below is my weekly newspaper column, Commodity Insite from a week ago entitled, "Annus Horribilis Followed By Annus Mirabilis." The handful of weekly agriculture newspapers that have been kind enough to publish my ramblings have been doing so since the mid-1980s. Thus, my weekly column is the longest running futures column in history.


My book, Haunted By Markets as well as Back To The Futures my other book are based on my weekly newspaper columns. And that is why I describe my books as, history books. They can be checked out on www.commodityinsite.com. And look for the special offer that comes with a purchase.

Anyway, here is my column from last week:

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November 30, 2018

Annus Horribilis Followed By Annus Mirabilis

The Latin phrase, annus horribilis means horrible year and was first used in 1891. In 1992, the expression was brought to modern prominence by Queen Elizabeth II in a speech marking the 40th anniversary of her accession to the throne. She described the year as, annus horribilis because of all the personal problems her family endured such a divorces, separations, scandalous photos of loved ones and a fire that destroyed one of her personal residences. She said, 1992 is not a year on which I shall look back with undiluted pleasure.

Though there only a few weeks left in this calendar year, I am going to borrow the phrase, annus horribilis to describe the performance of the Big Four: stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities for 2018. The year has a bit more to run but by any measure, it has been a horrible year for investors, ag-producers and ag-traders.

Here are just a few thoughts about 2018 from Bloomberg News in an article entitled, Worst Day of an Awful Year Leaves No Corner of Market Unscathed, published November 20. One of the toughest years for financial markets in half a century got appreciably worse with simmering weakness across assets boiling over to leave investors with virtually nowhere to hide. And, nowhere to hide simply means all markets crashed in 2018.

The Bloomberg article goes on to state, Stocks buckled...sending the S&P 500 careening toward a correction. Oil plumbed depths last seen a year ago, while credit markets -- recently impervious -- showed signs of shaking apart. Bitcoin is in a freefall, while traditional havens like Treasuries, gold and the yen stood still.

In the case of Bitcoin, it traded as high as $20,650 each in December, 2017 but this week hit a low of $3498. A few days ago, the CRB Index that is to the commodity markets as the Dow Jones is to the stock market hit a new, 15 month low with soybean and wheat prices $2 a bushel off the best levels of the year. Crude oil prices have dropped more than 36% in the past 2 months going from a high of $77 a barrel to a low of just under $50 a barrel.

The S&P and the Dow a few days ago had erased all the grains for 2018. Bonds have had their worst year since 2014. And from Barrons published today. Lately, commodities have performed so poorly investors would be forgiven for thinking people no longer need anything to eat, drink, or fuel their cars. In the past five years, the average commodity mutual fund has lost 8% a year.

The first column I wrote this year was entitled, Bubble of Historic Proportions. I wrote, On the final day of 2017, the CRB hit a 10 month high, back up to the levels of mid-January. With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear the CRB was roller coaster like last year offering something for the bulls and something for the bears. But a New Year lies ahead and hopes are high that commodities will do better and be less roller coaster like.

As it turned out the high point for commodity values per se was in the January to February period of 2018. After that, commodities rolled over, headed south and posted a 15 month low in late November. The Dow Jones took a hard hit in February, recovered nicely into October before succumbing to another disastrous decline.

Over the past 7 years including this year, hard assets have done poorly. But with the lowest number of unemployed in 49 years in the U.S, a rise with commodity prices per se should be close at hand. After all, history shows an inverse relationship between job creation and inflation. When job creation is robust, inflation tends to rise. The phenomena is called the Phillips Curve and it should prove itself to be accurate in the New Year.

No doubt, 2018, was, annus horribilis. But traditional investment groups are viewing the recent weakness with commodities as an alternative to stocks. If stocks move sideways to lower over the next decade as my work indicates, commodities will improve amid increased demand thanks to the lowest jobless rate in 49 years. In fact, Goldman Sachs is calling for a 19% rise with commodities per se in 2019 and I agree wholeheartedly.


If my work and the work of Goldman Sachs is accurate, 2019 will be dubbed, annus mirabilis which is a Latin phrase for, wonderful year. And how would that be for a stroke of irony? Annus horribilis followed immediately by annus mirabilis.


And do take the time to check out my book, Haunted By Markets at www.commodityinsite.com. After all, Christmas is just around the corner! And look for the Special Offer that comes with each purchase. Look for it!

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This morning in early dealings, stocks and bonds are lower but commodities per se catching a modest bid. But the day is young and the volatility seen this week has been historically intense. Thus, what I am seeing now as I type furiously away may not be seen by settlement.


Looking at the entire Big Four; stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities right now I see two and only two trades I would concentrate upon. Then again, I have been saying that for a month and a half.

The time is 7:35 a.m. Chicago

























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The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice.There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.











This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solutions Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.


DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.


The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice.There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.